User blog comment:Kogath/Monster Hunter: World Discussion/@comment-27356783-20170621051130/@comment-8985329-20170621082814

The description already says "Welcome to the new World: Taking on the role of a hunter, players are tasked with going on a research expedition to a newly discovered continent known only as “new world” as they venture on quests to discover more about this mysterious land."

This new world is different from the new world in the 3rd gen (old new world lol), so both of your theories are wrong.